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Demographic Change, Land Use, and Conservation in and Around the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, Campeche,
Mexico.
Larry J. Gorenflo & Katrina Brandon.
Conservation International. Washington, DC, USA.
Calakmul is a biosphere reserve located on the Guatemala border in the southernmost part Campeche, Mexico. Covering about 723,000 hectares, it constitutes the largest protected area of tropical forest in Mexico. Despite its geographic isolation, the region surrounding this reserve experienced considerable population growth during the 1980s and 1990s-with large numbers of people from many other parts of Mexico migrating there, primarily in search of agricultural land or to provide services for the emerging communities of agriculturalists. Results from the 2000 census indicate a continuation of population growth in the region, including most localities in or near Calakmul, though at varying rates that may indicate important shifts in the demographic processes involved. Because of the important role that the reserve plays in biodiversity conservation, understanding patterns of demographic change and related economic development is crucial to identifying effective land use planning and conservation strategies.
This paper explores in detail the demographic processes that have affected the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve over the past two decades. Using geographic information system (GIS) technology, it examines the demographic change at the levels of individual communities and (sub-municipio) áreas geoestadísticas básicas (AGEBs) to provide insights on demography of the Calakmul region-focusing on both the type and rate of demographic change and the causes of this change. Examinations of AGEB-level data on economic activity, and of remotely sensed satellite imagery, provide indications of land use patterns in this region that have accompanied demographic development. And considerations of GIS-based estimates of agricultural potential and soils data provide insights on both the sustainability of current land use patterns, and the costs of restricting agricultural development in the immediate vicinity of the biosphere. The study closes with an evaluation of alternative strategies for future land planning, development policy, and conservation management given recent and likely future patterns of demographic change in this important portion of the Maya Forest.
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